What’s Driving the Belarus Protests?

Since the contested election on August 9, 2020, citizens in Belarus have taken to the streets in protest against President Lukashenko—in unprecedented numbers. Drawing on unique public opinion survey data from prior to the protests, Conflict & Change’s Prof. Kristin M. Bakke—with her collaborators Prof. John O’Loughlin at the University of Colorado and Prof. Gerard Toal at Virginia Tech—reports on how citizens in Belarus view major challenges facing the country, their trust in the president, and their orientation towards Russia and the West. See their piece in the Washington Post’s Monkey Cage (August 21), and their article in Global Voices, exploring generational divides among the protesters.

Initial Survey Findings on Geopolitical Orientations in Russia’s ‘Near Abroad’

Professor Kristin M. Bakke and her collaborators (Professor John O’Loughlin at the University of Colorado and Professor Gerard Toal at Virginia Tech) have published some of their initial findings from their joint NSF/ESRC-funded project on geopolitical orientations in Russia’s ‘near abroad’. In an article on the Open Democracy website, they examine whether citizens in Ukraine and Georgia worry about civil society organizations as ‘foreign agents’. They also examine whether people in Ukraine see themselves leaning towards Russia or ‘the West”, in this piece in the Washington Post’s ‘Monkey Cage’ blog. And reporting survey findings from Crimea, they write about what people in Crimea think about their future and the annexation, in this piece in Foreign Affairs.

The Social and Political Consequences of Covid-19

Several members of the Conflict & Change are reflecting on the social and political consequences of  Covid-19. Using data from the Integrated Crisis Early Warning System from January 2018 to April 2020, Nils Metternich finds an unprecedented decline in protest activities around the world during the Covid-19 pandemic, and an especially pronounced decline in European and Asian countries. In a piece in the Washington Post’s Monkey Cage, Kristin M. Bakke, Neil Mitchell, and Hannah Smidt situate the current ‘pandemic power grabs’ within a wider trend of growing restrictions on civil society. They warn that such restrictions on civil society make it harder to monitor the quality of governance and hold governments accountable.

The Julie Norman Show Podcast

Dr Julie Norman (@DrJulieNorman2), Teaching Fellow in SPP, has launched a new  podcast on politics, ethics, and current affairs, with a focus on moral obligations in times of crisis. Are those who step up heroes, or simply human? In the pilot episode, Julie speaks with Dr Cara Heuser, a medical doctor on the frontlines of the corona virus, but the conversation goes beyond Covid-19 to grapple with bigger questions of altruism, vocation, and more.

Listen or subscribe on Apple podcasts, Spotify, or Stitcher.

Turkey, the EU and the Middle East - Dr Susler's new book

C&C member Dr Bugra Susler published his new book Turkey, the EU and the Middle East: Foreign Policy Cooperation and the Arab Uprisings (Routledge 2020). Susler focuses on the dynamics of Turkey’s relationship with Europe in the context of the ‘Arab Spring’ and analyses Turkish behaviour vis-à-vis foreign policy cooperation with the EU. The analysis is based on field research involving interviews with diplomats and policy makers at the Turkish Ministry of Foreign Affairs and the European External Action Service (EEAS).

More generally, Susler’s research deals with global conflicts and international cooperation, with a particular focus on the Middle East, Turkish foreign policy and the international relations of the European Union. He is a Teaching Fellow in International Organisations & International Conflict and Cooperation at UCL Department of Political Science and a Visiting Postdoctoral Fellow at LSE IDEAS, the foreign policy think tank of the London School of Economics and Political Science (LSE).